Comptroller of Public Accounts: Revenue vs Shortfall

According to the Comptroller’s “cautiously optimistic” revenue estimate, the 86th Legislature will have an estimated $119.12 billion available for general-purpose spending in the 2020-21 biennium, 8.1 percent more than the corresponding amount estimated for 2018-19. This figure represents the 2018-19 ending balance of $4.18 billion, plus 2020-21 tax revenue of $107.32 billion and 2020-21 non-tax receipts of $14.16 billion, less an estimated reserve of $6.34 billion from oil and natural gas taxes for future transfer to the Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF) and the State Highway Fund (SHF), and less an estimated reserve of $211 million for transfer to the Texas Tomorrow Fund. So, what does this mean for the supplemental needs left unfunded by the 85th Texas Legislature? The estimated ending certification balance for the 2018-19 biennium will be $4.18 billion after setting aside $2.80 billion from fiscal 2019 crude oil and natural gas production tax collections to be evenly di